Black Swan

Before the discovery of the black swan in Australia, Europeans believed that all swans were white. Black swan was once an idiom in their conversations and writings, used to refer to something that could not exist. However, when the first black swan appeared, this unshakable belief...

Regarding the book "Black Swan", they are either profound, or have unique perspectives, or beautiful language, or are full of wisdom, or creative. These sentences or paragraphs have been arranged in order of numbers 1-20: 1. "History and society do not crawl. They jump. They jump from one fault to another with only a few swings in between, and we (and historians) like to believe that we can predict small gradual evolutions." - This sentence reveals the discontinuity and unpredictability of history, challenging people's conventional perception of gradual change. 2. "Black swan events have three characteristics: they are unexpected, have a huge impact, and although we can try to explain their occurrence afterwards, they are difficult to predict in advance." - This sentence defines the core of the concept of "black swan", emphasizing its suddenness, significance and unpredictability. 3. "We are accustomed to forgetting the existence of all black swan phenomena immediately after a black swan phenomenon occurs, because they are too shocking, so they do not seem to be representative." - This points out people's psychological bias and memory failure towards extreme events. 4. "We always tend to think that life is linear, and forget that real life is often made up of randomness, jumps and uncertainties." - This sentence reminds us to pay attention to the nonlinear factors and uncertainties in life. 5. "In an ideal world, we only need to worry about the possibility of things happening. But in the real world, we also need to worry about our perception of the possibility." - This sentence emphasizes the importance of subjective cognition in risk assessment. 6. "Knowledge has a strange property. It makes us feel that we are closer to the truth, but in fact, we may just be better at making up a convincing story." - This sentence raises profound questions about the nature of knowledge. 7. "We tend to overestimate our understanding of the world and underestimate the true uncertainty of things." - This sentence reveals the limitations of human cognition and the dangers of overconfidence. 8. "Complex things often have simple origins, and simple things can have complex consequences." - This sentence expresses the non-intuitive nature of complex systems in concise language. 9. "Prediction is difficult, especially when it comes to the future." - This sentence humorously points out the inherent difficulty of prediction, especially long-term prediction. 10. "Many of life's great events are caused by a series of unlikely coincidences." - This quote emphasizes the role of chance in shaping history and personal life. 11. "We should not predict the future based on the past, but prepare ourselves for all possible future situations." - This advice advocates a more flexible and forward-looking way of thinking. 12. "In the world of black swans, the real heroes are those who can prevent disasters from happening, not those who can rescue after they happen." - This quote emphasizes the idea that prevention is better than cure. 13. "It is always easier for us to remember things that have happened and ignore things that have not happened." - This quote reveals people's bias towards historical records and the selectivity of memory. 14. "Black swan events teach us that history does not crawl, it jumps." - This quote reiterates the discontinuity and mutation of history. 15. "We tend to attribute success to our own abilities and blame failure on external factors." - This quote reveals the self-serving bias in human psychology. 16. "In a world full of black swans, the best strategy may be to remain flexible and open-minded." - This sentence advocates an adaptive and resilient attitude towards life. 17. "The real journey of discovery lies not in finding new scenery, but in having new eyes." - This sentence expresses the importance of observing the world from a new perspective in beautiful language. 18. "Black swan events remind us that no matter how hard we try to plan and control, there will always be things that exceed our expectations." - This sentence emphasizes the inevitable uncertainty and surprises in life. 19. "The harder we try to eliminate uncertainty, the more likely we are to create new and greater uncertainty." - This sentence reveals the unexpected consequences of intervening in complex systems. 20. "In the end, we may not be able to predict the future, but we can be prepared for its arrival." - This sentence ends the discussion of the black swan phenomenon with a positive and pragmatic attitude.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a famous American statistician, risk management theorist, philosopher and writer.< He is known for his research on uncertainty, probability and black swan events.

The following is a detailed introduction about Taleb: 1.

Personal basic information: Nassim Nicholas Taleb was born in 1960 and has dual Lebanese and American citizenship.< His family background is diverse.

His father is a Greek Orthodox Christian in Lebanon, and his mother is of French and Greek descent.< 2.

Education and career background: Taleb was educated in a French school in Paris and later went to the United States for further studies.< He received a master's degree in finance from the Wharton School of Business and a doctorate in management science from the University of Paris Dauphine.

Taleb worked on Wall Street for many years as a trader and risk consultant, and these experiences provided him with rich material for his later writing.< 3.

Writing career: Taleb's writing career began in 1997 when he published his first book, Dynamic Hedging.

However, his real work of fame is The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, published in 2001.< The book explores the impact of extreme, rare but highly influential events (i.

e.< , "black swan" events) on financial markets and society.

4.

Style and theme of work: Taleb's works are known for being easy to understand and insightful.< He is good at presenting complex statistical and probability concepts to readers in an easy-to-understand way.

The themes of his works mostly revolve around uncertainty, risk management, and decision-making.< 5.

Personal life: Taleb attaches great importance to privacy in his personal life, and there is little public information about his private life.< However, he reveals his love for philosophy, history, and literature in his works.

6.

Social influence: Taleb's theories and views have had a profound impact on the financial and academic communities.< His "black swan" theory has become a standard term for describing unpredictable events and is widely used in fields such as economics, finance, psychology, and sociology.

7.

Quotations and evaluations: The New York Times once described Taleb as "one of the most interesting thinkers today.< " The Financial Times called him "the philosopher of finance".

In addition, many experts and scholars have also spoken highly of Taleb's works.< 8.

Latest News: Taleb continues to be active in the academic and writing fields, and his new works and opinions are often published in the media and academic journals.< He also actively interacts with readers on social media to share his latest thoughts and insights.

In short, Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a prolific and influential writer, and his works provide us with valuable perspectives on understanding and coping with uncertainty.